Reply To: Free Sonar Tier

[LinkedMusicians]

On SoulfulKeys said

I don’t think BandLab was ever concerned with marketing or selling this as a separate product, hence no perpetual license. It’s all about completing their BandLab ecosystem so a user can now do everything, from creating to distribution, through them with just one payment. They’ve never pushed it as a separate product and even now don’t seem particularly concerned with going in that direction so they aren’t really losing anything. You’d have to analyze the effect this had on overall BandLab growth. Did adding a full featured DAW draw in more customers and subscriptions? I think they knew there was already way too much competition in the solo DAW market and were never trying to go that route.

I’m not sure I follow.

Sonar is targeted primarily at 30 and over users, millennials on up. That’s a VERY attractive market because it has far more disposable income than Gen Z that the BandLab platform is targeted at.  BandLab had engaged in targeted advertising, direct marketing, and press outreach for Cakewalk Sonar. I believe that BandLab would is much wiser to focus on step up products (more entry-level DAWs) like Next, but use  BandLab branding. For example, BandLab Next as opposed to Cakewalk Next. BandLab clearly resurrected the Cakewalk brand and Sonar subrand because they believed it mean something to the older demographic. But they picked a brand with such negative baggage, it was bad and not a strategic fit on numerous levels. Then they proceeded to mismanage their strategy and confuse and alienate the small market they started with. That’s easily measurable through sentiment analysis — it is one of the commonly used tools marketers have to understand how consumers think and also from the reaction of influencers. I don’t think there is a serious case that BandLab are some kind of mad geniuses that planned this out. No, their initial strategies — which are easily discerned as failed strategies — failed. They’re not modifying their strategy. That’s why I was able to easily predict that they were overdue for an adjustment right before this news came out. It was highly predictable. This is eleventh-hour stuff. But it costs too much to support/maintain two additional product lines that don’t reach a user base that is going to be profitable, and BandLab has, to date, been unable to reach a large enough base for this product to be profitable to maintain.

Influencers are solopreneurs. They’re opportunists, completely focused on making as much money as they can. If they abandon a brand, it’s only because they don’t see enough revenue potential for themselves there. They won’t flee a brand until they see the money around that brand just doesn’t exist or exist at a level that is similar to that with other brands they could be chasing. A lot can be gleaned by a competitor from these analyses — or when analyzing a potential acquisition target (company)– from analyzing the combination of sentiment analysis from the various music-making related forums and influencer reaction. It is was marketers do to better understand consumers and competitors.

Consider this. BandLab claims its main platform’s user base is around 40 million. They don’t share their paid subscriber base for Cakewalk software subscriptions, but just a wild guess, I would bet it’s under 10,000 — we don’t know because BandLab doesn’t want to share that number (we know it’s not good; they always share positive numbers). Now total free users of Cakewalk by BandLab could be as high as 200,000 by some analysts’ estimates, but it’s likely to be far less. One giant sign that the numbers — free version or paid subscribers are low, is that BandLab loves to boast about its user numbers, but refuses to give these numbers out when asked for them. Older demographic users won’t behave like younger demographic users with regard to purchases of additional services, so BandLab will need to create new service offerings for these segments.

Consider that supporting and nurturing each product line to the various demographic groups is costly. BandLab has NOT committed much in the way of resources to promotion to older demographic users.  CEO, Meng Ru Kuok, has publicly stated that their “deep understanding of the needs and behaviors of our Gen Z demographic, which is our core user base,” has been central to the platform’s growth. The company’s user growth is described as “a steady climb fueled by our deep understanding of the needs and behaviors of our Gen Z demographic.” I don’t see the same kind of understanding or adaptation to the needs of older demographic users. BandLab hasn’t shown a propensity to commit the resources it takes to continue to serve this market.

When you look at all of this as a whole, BandLab’s going back to a free DAW — basically, going back to what they were doing with Cakewalk by BandLab — reveals that their strategy has failed to achieve their objectives, and it seems very clear that this is a move to re-attract users that fled when they went subscription only. But I think the brand has made too many missteps, and won’t be able to recover and build enough in this competitive marketplace and will very soon be closing the Cakewalk Sonar product line. I’m sure if you surveyed 10 strategists who examined this, 10, or at least 9 out of 10, would come to same conclusions. It’s not difficult for a strategist to make any of the observations I made if they were very familiar with the market and strategies of BandLab. It’s simply takes up to many resources for BandLab to continue with pursuing this market with Cakewalk Sonar. I don’t see how a path to making this profitable. It’s why I predicted, last night, that they would be modifying their strategy and may even introduce a perpetual license. But I think that is too philosophically opposed to the company’s principles. Meng wouldn’t allow it. I think he should,  and I think it is one of many things that shows a lack of customer focus and a lack of concern for listening to the market that lies beyond Gen Zers. But even if BandLab did offer a perpetual license for Cakewalk Sonar, I don’t think they can grab enough of a market share to make it worthwhile for them to maintain the Cakewalk Sonar product. I think it’s dead no matter what adjustments they make at this point.

Time will tell. I will leave this thread up here and we can check back in 6 months and then 1 year, if Cakewalk Sonar still exists at that point.

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